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 The Molokai
Challenge is famous for its huge downwind conditions – and for this reason many
paddlers consider it to be the holy grail of surf ski paddling.
Typically a
15-20kt ENE wind blows across the Molokai Channel and paddlers ride 10ft swells
with 20-30ft faces.
But the
weather forecast for the 2007 race shows a very different picture.
NOAA Forecast
Lead
weather forecaster Pat Caldwell released this bulletin for Sunday:
Brutal
conditions with minimal trade windswell in the models for Sunday.
Large scale
flow light to gentle out of SE, so with the upstream island shadows, pretty
darn glassy except for localized coastal breezes.
The southie
(from 190-200 degrees) should be 3' 17
sec open ocean, meaning top spots 2-3 ocn 4 Hawaii scale, just a moderate
episode. At most, the odd 5 Hawaii scale
set for the biggest spots, one of which is Portlock, so some lucky bugga could
luck out and get the odd big set (one such set about every 2 hours). The travel distance is 4500 nm, which is a
bit further than the average south swell, so the sets should be less frequent. The buoy is out on the equator, so no updates
to the forecast until it hits buoy 51002, with about a 9 hour lead time.
The NOAA
website is at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/SRF.php
Buoyweather
Buoyweather
shows the following forecast. Seems to
show pretty much the same story.
 
The Buoyweather site is at www.buoyweather.com
What does it mean?
 Course map
A much
longer, harder race. Instead of the lead paddlers surfing
for 3 ½ hours, they'll will be grinding on glassy seas with little help from the wind (which may even be a headwind if Buoyweather is right) and across waves running almost directly side-on for around 4 ½ hours.
This means
that strength and fitness will play a larger role than experience and downwind
skills, so benefiting the younger paddlers such as Hank McGregor, Clint
Pretorius and Dawid Mocke all of South Africa.
The downwind specialists like Oscar Chalupsky (SA), Mark Sandvold (US) and Dean Gardiner (Aus)
will be cursing their luck.
Australians
Ash Nesbit and Dean Beament and Lewis Laughlin of Tahiti have done most of
their training on flatter water and so may be better conditioned for this race.
Whatever,
it will still be a grueling contest and fascinating to watch.
If the forecast changes, we'll update the site with the fresh information...
Race website: www.molokaiworldchampionships.com
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Mahalo for the Good work. Keep it up.
And let's have an exciting finish for the 'Molo!
Ken Moore
Kaneohe, HI