 Were the ARB Surf Ski World Cup to be held in calm, flat conditions, this writer would think twice before putting money down on anyone but Australia's ace paddler, Tim Jacobs. But the weather forecast is firming up as race day approaches and it seems likely that the organizers will run the main event on Sunday in classic Durban downwind conditions. So how does that affect the predictions?
We've seen Tim's form on two occasions now: On Saturday he came second in the Tony Rowney Memorial race to Hank McGregor in a sprint finish. Onlookers observed that it wasn't a "real" race and the guys might not have been going all out. But there was no doubt about Sunday's 20km Discovery Men's Health series race. Most of the top South Africans were there, all the paddlers seemed to go out hard - and most of them seemed to blow before the end of the race, leaving Tim Jacobs an easy winner by almost a minute from Hank McGregor. The evergreen Oscar Chalupsky, who came in third, was another two and half minutes off the pace.
So, on flat water, Tim Jacobs would be a good bet.
But if the race is held on Sunday and if the weather forecast holds good, then conditions will be anything but flat. And how does that affect the field?
Here's a look at some of the paddlers (in the order that they are currently in the poll on http://www.surfskiworldcup.com/) and how they might be affected by big downwind conditions...
Tim Jacobs
 After last Sunday's race in Durban, which he won by nearly a minute, comments about Tim Jacobs became very respectful: "He's very fast." "He was looking relaxed at the start and relaxed at the finish." But what if the World Cup race is held in big downwind conditions as seems more and more likely? The South Africans believe he doesn't have the edge in big downwind conditions - names like Dean Gardiner come to the fore. "But he'll still be competitive."
Hank McGregor
 Hank is equally at home on the flat and on waves. And he has local knowledge on his side. Hank has to be one of the favourites, flat or lumpy. Last Sunday's race came a week after he won a marathon championship in K1 in Cape Town (by miles) (and paddled the K2 event - two 40km races back to back. He said he was feeling a little fatigued... but he's taken it easier this week and said he's looking forward to the World Cup, no matter what the course. "Some of guys are hoping for a big downwind," he said, "but you've got to consider the majority and if the surf's too big they may have to change to a lap course. It's a bit up in the air at the moment [because of the uncertainty of the weather forecast] and I'd just like to know what we're going to do.
Hank's prediction for the top five (apart from himself)? In a downwind, he said, the South Africans will have an advantage. "Oscar, Herman, Dawid, Clint and Matt."
Dean Gardiner
 Deano hates flat water - he pulled out of the Molokai World Championships last month when the trade winds died and the race turned into a flat water grind. Rumour has it that Dean has been training hard - and he'll revel in strong downwind conditions. Talk to the Aussies and they scoff at suggestions that Oscar Chalupsky is the best downwind paddler in the world... Deano's the man, they say. It would be great to see a face-off between these two on Sunday.
If the race is run from Amanzimtoti to Durban, Dean has to be in with a chance, no matter what the South Africans say.
Dawid Mocke
 Dawid is something of a dark horse in this race. He heads the Surfski.info World Rankings, but is he man for the job this week? He has reputation for being something of a flat water paddler - "let the world keep thinking that," he says. We think that's a load of BS - Dawid is world class in downwind (and flat) conditions.
He's been beaten though several times in Durban in the last couple of months and returned to his home in Cape Town two weeks ago to train in familiar waters. This set heads wagging in Durban where consensus is that Dawid should have been training with the rest of the South African squad.
Dawid has been training with brother Jasper who is also a downwind specialist.
Murray Stewart
 Last weekend Murray won the under 23 1000m K1 sprints at a World Cup event in Germany - clearly he's hot stuff on flat water. Does this translate into downwind skills? Not necessarily and a 30km race is very different to a 1000m sprint. We think he'll be up there, but we don't rate Murray as a potential winner of the World Cup.
Oscar Chalupsky
 Oscar's had a great year - he won the Perth World Cup, he came a close second in Dubai. He's fit and raring to go - especially if it's a downwind race.
Plus there is no-one on the planet who knows the Durban conditions better than Oscar. The only factor against the big O is his age - surely the big man must start slowing down sometime - he's 44.
But if I were a betting man, some of my stake would go on Oscar for this race (assuming downwind conditions).
Matthew Bouwman
 Matt Bouwman seemed unstoppable at be beginning of the season - until the Molokai squad came back. But he's consistently in the top three in the Discovery Men's Health series and is confident about the race. "I'm super-excited," he said, "about the course, the race, everything."
Matt said his strongest competition will be from Dawid and Hank McGregor. "We've all had the odd bad race," he said, "but those two are consistent." He doesn't rate Oscar or Dean Gardiner whom he reckons are just too old. "Oscar's got an incredibly tough metal attitude," Matt said, "but it's like putting a 1300cc up against a 4 litre. He just doesn't have it any more." (Oscar's rejoinder? "Ask Matt what happened on Sunday! And I was going the slow route... [Oscar took an apparently slower inside line while Matt went offshore.] I've got plenty of power!")
Herman Chalupsky is Matt's dark horse for the race. "I never take my eyes off that old man," he said.
Jean Rillard
 Jean Rillard? We don't know much about him save that he's the current French surf ski champion - but on flat water. The last championship was held on the Mediterranean and we're pretty sure that the wind and waves will be unfamiliar to the French team.
Barry Lewin
 We rate Barry as a top ten prospect - but an outsider to win the race. He's given Dawid Mocke a run for his money on occasion but Dawid has beaten him every time they've met this year.
Dave Kissane
We don't know much about Dave apart from the fact that he has featured in the top ten at Molokai and is considered to be one of the top Aussie paddlers.
(Update - Dave is back from a recent paddling injury and is not expecting to win the race - but is looking forward to a big downwind run.)
Darryl Bartho
Darryl has paddled three times in the last three weeks - having had other commitments. He said that he's not fit (having been away for the last two weeks fishing in Mozambique) and is just looking forward to enjoying the race.
Clint Pretorius
 Clint was the surprise winner at Molokai in 2006, overtaking Oscar Chalupsky at the end of the race when he took an advantageous outside line. The other South African paddlers didn't rate him on flat water - but show him downwind conditions and he's elevated to several "top five" predictions.
And unrated wildcard Jasper Mocke
 Watch Jasper Mocke. Jasper is awesome in downwind conditions and holds the record for the Milnerton to Big Bay run in Cape Town - and he did it on a Custom Kayaks Titan spec ski.
He's been training in Cape Town with Dawid Mocke - and came steaming past us last Saturday during a run in a howling northwester... just behind his brother. Dawid said he was surprised at how fast Jasper was going. "I kept looking around to see if I'd dropped him," Dawid said, "but I couldn't get rid of him."
For us Jasper is the real dark horse of the race.
And the ladies?
Katie Pocock
 Katie has to be odds-on favourite to win the ladies race. She's fit, strong and has had some good results (King of the Harbour springs to mind). And South Africa's top female paddlers (Nikki Mocke, Michele Eray) are out due to their commitments to sprint paddling. The only person we rate as capable of giving Katie some competition is Cape Town's Alexa Lombard - but she's primarily a flat water paddler and may not find big downwind conditions to her liking.
Lauren Mckie
 Lauren hasn't raced against Katie but views her with respect. It'll be interesting to see how the ladies from down under fare in our conditions. Lauren has plenty of experience in skis and waves, having started surf ski paddling at age 14.
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